Umbral Horror Deck #773036 — Yu-Gi-Oh! OCG

Deck — Deck Power Evaluation

Final Contextual Deck Power: 35/100 (±8 · Confidence: Low)

• Primary strategy: Midrange
• Secondary strategies: Control, Xyz
• Format: ocg

Legality

Main 55 / Extra 15 / Side 0 — status under the rules at evaluation time: Illegal. 2 violation(s).

Identity & game plan

• Win condition: Xyz Summon a high-ATK Number / Masquerade monster (Number C104 Umbral Horror Masquerade, Number 104 Masquerade V, CXyz Hope Chaos Barian Dragon) and protect it with hand traps and negation; Gorgonic / Mulcharmy / V Umbral Horror card advantage and Number 39 / Number 69 board-control Xyz boards
• Turn 1 (going first): Open on an Umbral Horror or Mulcharmy starter, search with V Umbral Horror / Gorgonic / Barian's Seventh Untopia, and reach a Level 4 Xyz base before the opponent can break it (Inferred from card text; no recorded boards)
• Turn 2 (going second): Use the 16 hand traps (Ash Blossom, Effect Veiler, Droll & Lock Bird, Ghost Ogre, Infinite Impermanence, Nibiru) to break the opponent's first turn, then Xyz through the surviving board (Inferred)
• Recovery: Mulcharmy Fuwalos / Purulia / Meowls draw on opponent summons and the Umbral Horror searchers rebuild the hand; Barian's Seal and Dominus Spark provide follow-up interaction (Inferred)
• After siding: Not evaluable: the deck runs no Side Deck (side_count 0), so there is no post-side plan

Why it scores here

The deck reliably opens: the 23 archetype-core copies give about 94% odds of at least one in a 5-card opening hand, and the search text (Gorgonic, V Umbral Horror, Barian's Seventh Untopia) adds redundancy (Inferred from the hypergeometric draw table). Its interaction is the strongest part of the system: 16 hand traps and 11 negation-text cards give about 89% odds of a hand trap on the going-second turn, which is why going-second power scores above going-first. Converting that plan into a win depends on Level 4 and Level 5 Xyz bases; the best-line ceiling is unmeasured because no boards were recorded, so conversion scores are text-only inferences and are kept near the middle. The score is not driven by Umbral Horror's popularity (archetype usage stats were present but only confirm the list is real), and it was not built by averaging card scores. The Illegal status (3 copies of Seventh Tachyon against a limit of 1, and 3 copies of Ash Blossom against a limit of 2) caps the result: this is a structural-only, theoretical read.

Dimension scores

How the score was computed

Strategy profile: Midrange primary; Control secondary used only as strategy label, weights not blended. Structural ≈ 60, Going First ≈ 62, Going Second ≈ 68, Meta = provisional, Tournament Reliability ≈ 55. Modifiers: Banlist / copy-limit exposure (-12); No side deck (0). Final formula: Illegal cap: structural-only. Uncapped 0.80*60 + 0.20*55 - 12 (modifier) = 47; capped to 35 because the deck exceeds copy limits (Illegal). Meta provisional (null).

Probability & combo summary

• Opening a starter: P(≥1) ≈ 0.94 · key two-card combo ≈ — · full-brick estimate ≈ 0.06 (all Inferred)
• Combo output: best PowerIndex —, median —, board-per-starter —
• Turn order: 0 going-first lines vs 0 going-second lines

Strengths

• Archetype core is dense: about 94% of openings contain at least one core card (Inferred)
• Interaction is layered: 16 hand traps give about 89% odds of a hand trap on the going-second turn (Inferred)
• Recursion through Mulcharmy monsters and Umbral Horror searchers gives card flow (Inferred)

Weaknesses

• Illegal copy counts on two key cards (Seventh Tachyon, Ash Blossom)
• No side deck, so no best-of-3 adaptation
• Off-archetype density is high (61 of 70 archetype-named copies are not exact-name Umbral Horror), which lowers engine coherence
• No combo or tournament evidence to confirm conversion

Critical choke points

• Dependence on Level 4 Xyz bases for each Xyz line
• Exceeding copy limits on Seventh Tachyon and Ash Blossom means the list cannot be played in a sanctioned event as built

Recommended changes

Evidence & confidence

• Verified: Legality: Illegal; Seventh Tachyon 3 copies vs legal 1; Ash Blossom 3 copies vs legal 2; Main 55 / Extra 15 / Side 0 within OCG size rules; Composition counts (hand_trap 16, negation 11, removal 18); Archetype core probability 0.9421 (hypergeometric)
• Inferred: Starter access and brick rate from hypergeometric draw table; Going-second interaction density from hand-trap count; Interaction quality and closing power from card text; Recursion and resource economy from card text
• Provisional: Meta Power (null, no dated metagame sample); Matchup and format fit (D13)
• Data gaps: no combos supplied — combo floor/median/ceiling is text-only inference no tournament link — archetype meta-share and per-pilot match record absent no win-rate telemetry exists in YGOVN — going-first/second and matchup rates unknown Meta Power is Provisional unless a dated metagame sample is supplied No side deck: post-side performance cannot be assessed